Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 ...

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Well, it looks as if my Apple ruminations and research have come to Fruition - and rather accurately at that. Since Apple has such a cult following, I will set the facts straight right here in a nifty little timeline as Apple tumbles in real time. This is to correct those who are comprehension challenged in saying that I've been crying to short Apple for 400 points. To begin with, I run a subscription site, I generally don't give away actionable advice for free, I charge for it. I have warned about Apple's macro and business conditions - yes, but whether to go long or short on the stock,I only opined in public once. Read below to see how that turned out. My next post will start revealing some of my actual subscription materials in order to make public the accuracy and prescience therein. Is it time for 1000s and 1000s of rose colored #iPhone sporting #iSheep and #fanbois to issue kudos to the BoomBust???

Spring 2010 - I declare the mobile computing wars are on and Google looks to be the front runner (light years ahead of the sell side)...

The Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars!

1. There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All
2. The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
3. An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
4. Don?t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet

In October of 2010, I warned that Apple would face margin compression and make a short candidate. I DIDN'T say it should be short at that time, but I did say within 4 to 8 quarters competitive realities would catch up with it...

October 2011

So, what happened exactly 4 quarters later? Oh yeah, Apple misses on margins, the stock drops - ?Reggie Middleton Wasn't the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the?..?This was the only time where I publicly stated I would short Apple.?Announce contrarian short candidate - company?misses and the stock dropped, right on the 4 to 8 quarter schedule! Sounds pretty good to me.?Go to 2:20 in the video for a clear description of the margin compression illustrated below...

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In the mean time, here are some updated margin charts to support what was said in the video and the extant Apple research for subscribers to review.

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Yes, Apple is the vast majority of the desktop computer equity market capitalization!

Apple revenues as a smartphone companyApple revenues as a smartphone company

Apple has, in just a few short years, morphed from a computer computer to a smartphone and tablet company, which essentially are just new age computers anyway. It's just that no one sees Motorola, RIMM or Nokia that way!

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iphone marginsiphone margins

As the key revenue drivers see there margins compress (and I told you so two years ago), entity level margins will drop as well:

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Apple Margin chart

Google is a true threat to Apple that simply cannot be ignored. Here I explained that threat im explicit, easy to follow detail...

Now, exactly 8 quarters after my 4 to 8 quarter premonition, does everybody want to get short Apple and long Google??????

October 2012: Everyone jumps on the BoomBustBlog bandwagon...

?goog vs aapl

Click?here to subscribe. After subscribing, I wish all newcomers to download the very simply and quick Apple margin model below to put your most optimistic assumptions in to see how they may look in terms of product sales.

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Industry Leading, Subscription Based Google Research

All paying subscribers should download the?Google Q1-2012 Valuation Summary, wherein we have updated the valuation numbers for Google using a variety of metrics.?Click?here to subscribe or upgrade.?

Google still exhibits the likelihood that they will control mobile computing for the balance of the decade.

Subscription research:

A couple of bits from our archives...

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Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-09/right-time-my-prediction-apple-margin-compression-8-quarters-my-cnbc-warning-

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